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NEFL Weekly – Week 9
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Eau Claire Crush HC Fred Hoversholm
Menomonie Thunderhawks HC Ray Roberts
Chippewa Valley Predators HC Martin Adams
Rochester Giants HC Donny Holcomb
Lake Superior Rage HC Matt Krivinchuk
* * * * *
NEFL Playoff Picture - Week 9
##=clinched home field through Elite Bowl
#=clinched home field in conference title game
*=clinched division
^=clinched playoff spot
X=eliminated
AMERICAN CONFERENCE
Clinching Scenarios for Week 9:
-FORCE clinched EAST DIVISION
-PREDATORS clinched PLAYOFF SPOT
FORCE clinch AMERICAN CONFERENCE with WIN and PREDATORS LOSS
PREDATORS clinch CENTRAL DIVISION with WIN or TIE
CRUSH clinch PLAYOFF SPOT with WIN
Elimination Scenarios for Week 9:
-SPARTANS are eliminated
-STORM are eliminated
GLADIATORS eliminated with LOSS
Playoffs if season ended today:
* Force (E) - bye
Crush (WC) -at- ^ Predators (C)
STANDINGS
EAST
* Force 5-1 (4-0 conf, 2-0 div) - --
Gladiators 2-3 (1-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 2.5 GB
X Storm 1-5 (1-3 conf, 1-2 div) - 4 GB
CENTRAL
^ Predators 4-1 (3-0 conf, 2-0 div) - --
Crush 3-3 (2-2 conf, 2-1 div) - 1.5 GB
X Spartans 1-5 (0-4 conf, 0-3 div) - 3.5 GB
WILD CARD
Crush 3-3 (2-2 conf, 2-1 div) - --
Gladiators 2-3 (1-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 0.5 GB
X Storm 1-5 (1-3 conf, 1-2 div) - 2 GB
X Spartans 1-5 (0-4 conf, 0-3 div) - 2 GB
CONFERENCE STANDINGS
* Force 5-1 (4-0 conf, 2-0 div) - --
^ Predators 4-1 (3-0 conf, 2-0 div) - 0.5 GB
Crush 3-3 (2-2 conf, 2-1 div) - 2 GB
Gladiators 2-3 (1-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 2.5 GB
X Storm 1-5 (1-3 conf, 1-2 div) - 4 GB
X Spartans 1-5 (0-4 conf, 0-3 div) - 4 GB
NATIONAL CONFERENCE
Clinching Scenarios:
-No one has clinched
GIANTS clinch SOUTH DIVISION with WIN and ROUGH RIDERS LOSS
PIONEERS clinch PLAYOFF SPOT with WIN
DRAGONS clinch PLAYOFF SPOT with WIN and RAGE LOSS
Elimination Scenarios:
-No one has been eliminated
THUNDERHAWKS eliminated with LOSS
ROUGH RIDERS eliminated with LOSS
RAGE eliminated with LOSS and DRAGONS WIN
Playoffs if season ended today:
Dragons (N) - bye
Pioneers (WC) -at- Giants (S)
STANDINGS
SOUTH
Giants 2-4 (2-2 conf, 2-0 div) - --
Thunderhawks 1-4 (1-2 conf, 1-1 div) - 0.5 GB [wins head-to-head tiebreaker]
Rough Riders 1-4 (0-3 conf, 0-2 div) - 0.5 GB
NORTH
Dragons 5-1 (3-1 conf, 2-1 div) - -- [wins head-to-head tiebreaker]
Pioneers 5-1 (3-1 conf, 1-1 div) - --
Rage 4-2 (2-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 1 GB
WILD CARD
Pioneers 5-1 (2-1 conf, 1-1 div) - --
Rage 4-2 (2-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 1 GB
Giants 2-4 (2-2 conf, 2-0 div) - 3 GB
Rough Riders 1-4 (0-3 conf, 0-2 div) - 3.5 GB
CONFERENCE STANDINGS
Dragons 5-1 (3-1 conf, 2-1 div) - -- [wins head-to-head tiebreaker]
Pioneers 5-1 (3-1 conf, 1-1 div) - --
Rage 4-2 (2-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 1 GB
Giants 2-4 (2-2 conf, 2-0 div) - 3 GB
Rough Riders 1-3 (0-3 conf, 0-2 div) - 3 GB
Thunderhawks 1-4 (1-2 conf, 1-1 div) - 3.5 GB
NEFL STANDINGS (ELITE BOWL HOME FIELD)
Dragons 5-1 (3-1 conf, 2-1 div) - -- [wins head-to-head tiebreaker 1-0]
Pioneers 5-1 (3-1 conf, 1-1 div) - -- [2nd in head-to-head tiebreaker 1-1]
* Force 5-1 (4-0 conf, 2-0 div) - -- [3rd in head-to-head tiebreaker 0-1]
^ Predators 4-1 (3-0 conf, 2-0 div) - 0.5 GB
Rage 4-2 (2-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 1 GB
Crush 3-3 (2-2 conf, 2-1 div) - 2 GB
Gladiators 2-3 (1-2 conf, 1-2 div) - 2.5 GB
Giants 2-4 (2-2 conf, 2-0 div) - 3 GB
Thunderhawks 1-4 (1-2 conf, 1-1 div) - 3.5 GB [wins head-to-head tiebreaker]
Rough Riders 1-4 (0-3 conf, 0-2 div) - 3.5 GB
X Storm 1-5 (1-3 conf, 1-2 div) - 4 GB
X Spartans 1-5 (0-4 conf, 0-3 div) - 4 GB
Remaining Strength Of Schedule (Weakest to Strongest--based on record)
1. Giants 2-8 (.200)
2. Predators 4-8 (.250)
3. Force 3-8 (.273)
4. Spartans 5-6 (.455)
T5. Storm 6-6 (.500)
T5. Thunderhawks 6-6 (.500)
T7. Rage 6-5 (.546)
T7. Dragons 6-5 (.546)
9. Rough Riders 7-5 (.583)
10. Crush 6-4 (.600)
11. Gladiators 8-4 (.667)
12. Pioneers 9-3 (.750)
* * * * *
POWER RANKINGS - WEEK 9
1 (1) Pioneers 5-1 – The Pioneers have given up a grand total of 44 points in 6 games, and that defensive intensity will be tested with two big-time games to close out the year. They start with the Rage, a team that could be knocked out of the playoffs with a loss this week. The Pioneers control their playoff destiny—winning out gives them home field through Elite Bowl IV.
2 (2) Dragons 5-1 – This week’s game against River City should be a good test for their offense (the Rough Riders forced 5 turnovers against the Predators last week) as they tune up for another battle for The Trophy on July 16th, but if they play their normal solid defense (giving up just 13 points per game) everything will be in line for that colossal showdown next week.
3 (3) Force 5-1 – There is still a lot to play for in Appleton, despite having clinched their division weeks ago. A loss in either game the next two weeks (the Storm, looking for a signature victory to show their progress this season, or the Gladiators, furiously battling for a playoff spot) will give the Predators the upper hand in the battle for a first-round bye.
4 (4) Rage 4-2 – The chaos scenario in the NEFL North has the Rage winning out, and the Pioneers winning over the Dragons in Week 10 (and the Dragons winning Week 9, because it would seriously help the Rage if the Dragons lost this week). That puts all 3 teams at 6-2, 4-2 in the National Conference and 2-2 in the NEFL North. The last tiebreaker is points allowed, and right now the Rage are at a serious disadvantage there (128 for the Rage, 78 for the Dragons, 44 for the Pioneers). They’ll need to give up virtually nothing the next two weeks if they want to get into the postseason, and become the biggest River City fans this week.
5 (5) Predators 4-1 – The rust showed against River City, but the bigger questions about the Predators remain. How will they handle 4 games in 19 days (July 4, 9, 16, 23) after having 5 games in 3 months? Will their schedule, which had only 1 or arguably 2 big matchups, leave them untested for the postseason? Despite all of this, the Predators will play at Carson Park at some point in the playoffs no matter what happens, and have an outside chance of being able to host all the way through Elite Bowl IV.
6 (6) Crush 3-3 – Their season is down to this: a road game against Green Bay that, with a win, puts the Crush back into the playoffs. A loss doesn’t keep them out, but then they need to scoreboard watch as they try to handle a Predators team in Week 10 looking for another home-field game in the postseason. All the talk of improvement goes out the window if the Crush lose out and end up with the same record as last year.
7 (7) Giants 2-4 – The NEFL’s sleeper team woke up against Menomonie a couple of weeks ago and now have a great opportunity to host a playoff game with a win. If they lose, then their game against River City in Week 10 is hugely important, although they will have to scoreboard watch since Menomonie (playing the Rage that week) would clinch in that scenario with a win.
8 (8) Gladiators 2-3 – Winning over the Crush doesn’t give them a playoff spot, but a loss ends their postseason aspirations. The playoffs have arrived at Bay View Middle School this week, in what should be a fantastic game. Green Bay has rebounded very well from a bad start.
9 (9) Spartans 1-5 – Looking to next year, the Spartans will need to build depth and decide what approach to recruiting they’ll take in the offseason. Injuries have derailed this team for a second straight year, and they’ll need to have guys who can step up and play well in case next year is more of the same.
10 (10) Storm 1-5 – They can play spoiler this week against the Force and in the process give themselves a much-needed big win to take into the offseason for recruiting. The Storm have struggled this year transitioning from mostly spread looks to working in the run, and still throw a lot of passes for a team trying to be balanced. They can work on that these last two games and find areas to improve for next May.
11 (12) Rough Riders 1-4 – They forced 5 turnovers but their offense sputtered in a loss against the Predators, and now have to beat the Dragons and Giants to make the playoffs. That’s right—winning out puts River City in the postseason, provided the Thunderhawks lose at least once in the next two weeks. If they lose this week, it’s time to plan for 2012.
12 (11) Thunderhawks 1-4 – Losing this week means their playoff hopes are gone. Winning out puts them in the playoffs no matter what else happens. Menomonie will be rocking this Sunday when the Giants are in town.
LAST 10 GAMES POWER RANKINGS
Rank (Last Week) Team - Record in last 10 games - Opponent Rank - Streak
1 (1) Pioneers - 9-1 - 1 - 1W
2 (2) Dragons - 8-2 - 6 - 2W
3 (3) Force - 8-2 - 9 - 1L
4 (4) Predators - 8-2 - 11 - 4W
5 (5) Rage - 7-3 - 8 - 1L
6 (6) Gladiators - 4-6 - 4 - 2W
7 (7) Crush - 4-6 - 7 - 2W
8 (9) Rough Riders - 5-5 - 12 – 1L
9 (8) Thunderhawks - 5-5 - 10 - 2L
10 (10) Giants - 3-7 - 3 - 1W
11 (11) Storm - 3-7 - 5 - 5L
12 (12) Spartans - 1-9 - 2 - 4L
* * * * *
WEEK 9 PREVIEW
#9 Central Wisconsin Spartans (1-5) -at- #5 Chippewa Valley Predators (4-1)
6pm Saturday - Carson Park (Eau Claire, WI)
ALL TIME: Predators lead 9-3
7/13/2002 (GPFL) – Predators 22, Spartans (Panthers) 14
8/3/2002 (GPFL) – Predators 34, Spartans (Panthers) 10 – Playoffs
7/12/2003 (GPFL) – Spartans (Panthers) 17, Predators 10
6/24/2004 (GPFL) – Spartans (Panthers) 12, Predators 6 – OT
6/11/2005 (GPFL) – Spartans (Panthers) 9, Predators 6
6/25/2005 (GPFL) – Predators 30, Spartans (Panthers) 6
6/10/2006 (GPFL) – Predators 39, Spartans (Panthers) 7
5/19/2007 (GPFL) – Predators 37, Spartans (Panthers) 10
7/4/2009 (NEFL) – Predators 44, Spartans 21
6/5/2010 (NEFL) – Predators 63, Spartans 7
6/26/2010 (NEFL) – Predators 72, Spartans 0
6/4/2011 (NEFL) - Predators 49, Spartans 21
AT RECORDS (NEFL): Predators 76-29 (25-7), Spartans 26-55 (7-23)
Outlook: Two teams at opposite ends in the Central Division.
Upset Watch: The Spartans always seem to jump up and scare a higher-ranked opponent on a regular basis--the key to future success will be getting over that hump. Their offense can certainly pile on the points, but they'll need to control the ball and limit their turnovers to pull the upset.
Importance: The Predators can clinch a home playoff game with a victory, just another step for them as they quietly prepare their playoff run. The Spartans, meanwhile, could play spoiler, since they won't have that opportunity next week against the Storm.
Power Rankings Say: The Spartans will get multiple scores but the Predators will get the victory in comfortable fashion.
#7 Rochester Giants (2-4) -at- #12 Menomonie Thunderhawks (1-4)
1pm Sunday - Williams Stadium (Menomonie, WI)
ALL TIME: Rochester leads 4-0
6/18/2005 (GPFL): Giants 37, Thunderhawks (Reapers) 0
7/30/2005 (GPFL): Giants 56, Thunderhawks (Reapers) 6
7/11/2009 (NPFL): Giants 69, Thunderhawks 14
6/26/2011 (NEFL): Giants 46, Thunderhawks 12
AT RECORDS (NEFL): Giants 62-23 (4-10), Thunderhawks 27-46 (1-4)
Outlook: The NEFL South could be decided in this divisional clash.
Upset Watch: The Thunderhawks will need to toss their gameplan from their last meeting two weeks ago and get after it for all 4 quarters this Sunday. Last week against the Sting, Menomonie never relented and was rewarded with a big win. They'll need their best game of the year, or else next week is an exhibition match.
Importance: The Giants would get a home playoff game with a win (and a Rough Riders loss), while the Thunderhawks would move into first place (without clinching) with a victory. This is basically a playoff game.
Power Rankings Say: Menomonie's improved effort at home isn't quite enough as the Giants are confident after the blowout two weeks ago over the Thunderhawks and could wrap up the division title on Sunday.
#2 Minnesota Dragons (5-1) -at- #11 River City Rough Riders (1-4)
4pm Saturday - Harrings Stadium (La Crosse, WI)
ALL TIME: First meeting between these teams
AT RECORDS (NEFL): Dragons 27-8 (11-3), Rough Riders 35-49 (1-4)
Outlook: Two teams in the thick of a playoff chase square off to keep their seasons going
Upset Watch: The Rough Riders dominated the turnover battle against the Predators, but their offense sputtered. A home game usually means a few more players will show up, but can that be the difference against a tough opponent? A loss ends their season--that should be enough motivation.
Importance: The Dragons can maintain their home-field advantage over the Pioneers with a win, while the Rough Riders need to win just to have a shot at the postseason. A loss would not doom the Dragons, but it would keep the Rage alive and make next week's battle for The Trophy much more important. The Rough Riders would be eliminated with a loss.
Power Rankings Say: The Dragons' streak of not allowing 30 points or more will continue against a Rough Riders offense that has struggled most of the year, while their offense tunes up for a big battle next week.
#10 Kimberly Storm (1-5) -at- #3 Fox Valley Force (5-1)
6pm Saturday - Papermaker Stadium (Kimberly, WI)
ALL TIME: Force lead 5-0*
5/9/2009 (NEFL) - Force 21, Storm 6
6/27/2009 (NEFL) - Force 27, Storm 22
5/15/2010 (NEFL) - Force 34, Storm 17
7/10/2010 (NEFL) - Force 48, Storm 0
6/18/2011 (NEFL) - Force 33, Storm 10
*The teams played in 2008 when the Storm were an independent, and the Force won 41-6. However, it counts as exhibition for Fox Valley, so I'm leaving it out here.
AT RECORDS (NEFL): Force 53-10 (20-6), Storm 3-23 (3-19)
Outlook: Eastern division rivals battle for bragging rights
Upset Watch: The Storm have nothing to lose and respect to gain. They're still unhappy with how the game ended against the Force in June, and unlike most teams that hold a grudge in football, they'll have a chance to settle it on the field. We talk about the Storm trying to earn that signature win for their franchise, and this is their last shot at it until May of 2012. Their offense will need to be incredible against a stingy Force defense.
Importance: The Force are trying to keep that half-game lead on the Predators for a home playoff game, while the Storm really are playing for respect. There's something at stake for both opponents.
Power Rankings Say: Fox Valley will have to grind it out, but they'll end up winners in this one.
#6 Eau Claire Crush (3-3) -at- #8 Green Bay Gladiators (2-3)
4pm - Bay View Middle School (Green Bay, WI)
ALL TIME: Crush lead 3-0
6/9/2007 (GPFL): Crush 50, Gladiators 6
6/14/2008 (NEFL): Crush 36, Gladiators 0
6/28/2008 (NEFL): Crush 44, Gladiators 0
AT RECORDS (NEFL): Crush - 30-15 (21-12), Gladiators - 16-24 (14-18)
Outlook: The Wild Card is up for grabs in this one.
Upset Watch: The Gladiators demolished the Storm, giving them some momentum heading into this game. It's going to be the Gladiators' offense against the Crush defense, the two best position groups for each team in this game. If the Green Bay defense can shut down the Crush offense (which has struggled for points all year), they could score just enough to edge out Eau Claire for the lead in the Wild Card race.
Importance: Eau Claire eliminates Green Bay with a win. Green Bay doesn't eliminate the Crush with a win, but they do put themselves a half-game up going into the last week of the year, where the Crush face the rival Predators (Green Bay gets the Force).
Power Rankings Say: A low, low-scoring game has the battle-tested Crush pulling out a win after losing so many close ones in the fourth quarter this year.
*Game of the Week*
#1 St Paul Pioneers (5-1) -at- #4 Lake Superior Rage (4-2)
4pm Saturday - Ole Haugsrud (Superior, WI)
ALL TIME: Pioneers lead 3-2
8/5/2006 (MFL) – Rage (Stampede) 24, Pioneers 10
8/4/2007 (MFL) – Pioneers 16, Rage (Stampede) 6
5/22/2010 (NEFL) – Pioneers 21, Rage (Stampede) 7
6/19/2010 (NEFL) – Rage (Stampede) 27, Pioneers 24
5/21/2011 (NEFL) - Pioneers 16, Rage 3
AT RECORDS (NEFL): Pioneers 80-32 (13-3), Rage 44-15 (18-9)
Outlook: The Rage try to save their season against the Pioneers.
Upset Watch: The Rage are a very good team that, with a loss, will find themselves watching the NEFL playoffs. After the heartbreaker against the Dragons, this team will need to regroup and prove themselves worthy, as winning is the only way they hope to have a chance to make the playoffs.
Importance: The Pioneers will clinch a playoff spot with a win, and set up an epic clash for The Trophy next week by doing so. The Rage need to win just to have even a slim chance of making the playoffs--losing all but eliminates them from the playoffs (if the Dragons lose too, then it's down to math to decide who moves on).
Power Rankings Say: It will be a battle, and neither team might reach 20, but the Pioneers will edge out the Rage and give themselves a chance to defend their title.
* * * * *
ALL TIME RECORDS (NEFL)
Lake Superior Rage - 44-15 (28-9)
Chippewa Valley Predators - 76-29 (25-7)
Eau Claire Crush - 30-15 (21-12)
Fox Valley Force - 53-10 (20-6)
Green Bay Gladiators - 16-24 (14-18)
St Paul Pioneers - 80-32 (13-3)
Minnesota Dragons - 27-8 (11-3)
Central Wisconsin Spartans - 26-55 (7-23)
Rochester Giants - 62-23 (4-10)
Kimberly Storm - 3-23 (3-19)
River City Rough Riders - 35-49 (1-4)
Menomonie Thunderhawks - 27-46 (1-4)
